New Hampshire is gearing up for its primary on Tuesday, with Donald Trump's substantial victory in the Iowa caucus setting the stage for a pivotal showdown. Nikki Haley, former UN ambassador and a top rival for the Republican nomination, aims to make a significant impact in this critical primary state.
However, the Republican primary is not the sole focus in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Simultaneously, New Hampshire Democrats are proceeding with their own primary, albeit with a significant caveat – Joe Biden's name won't appear on the ballot. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) deems the New Hampshire primary "meaningless" after designating South Carolina as the first voting state.
Here's a comprehensive look at what to expect in the New Hampshire primary:
New Hampshire Primary vs. Iowa Caucuses
Differentiating from Iowa's caucuses, New Hampshire will host the first primary election of the 2024 election cycle. In a primary, voters cast their ballots at polling locations across the state, making the process more straightforward compared to the caucus system, which demands in-person participation at specific precincts. New Hampshire typically witnesses higher turnout due to the ease of voting and the option for undeclared voters to participate in either party's primary.
Republican Candidates on the Ballot
Although two dozen candidates filed to appear on the Republican primary ballot in New Hampshire, the focus is largely on Haley and Trump. Notably, DeSantis withdrew from the race just two days before the primary. Despite their withdrawal, names of former candidates like Mike Pence and Tim Scott will still appear on the ballot.
New Hampshire Democrats' Primary Dilemma
While New Hampshire Democrats are holding a primary, the DNC's decision to designate South Carolina as the first primary state has led to a standoff. The DNC has labeled the New Hampshire primary as "meaningless," sparking tension with state Democrats who assert their "first-in-the-nation" status. Biden's name won't be on the ballot, but Democrats plan to write him in. Other candidates like Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson aim to capitalize on Democrats' dissatisfaction with the altered voting calendar.
Voter Eligibility
Registered Democrats and Republicans can only vote in their party's primary, but undeclared voters can choose either. The presence of independent and Democratic voters in the Republican primary could significantly influence results.
Expected Republican Winner
Polls indicate that Trump maintains a considerable lead over Haley in New Hampshire. Despite Haley narrowing the gap, Trump remains ahead by around 13 points, according to the FiveThirtyEight average of New Hampshire polls.
Insights into the Republican Primary
The New Hampshire results will offer insights into the Republican primary landscape. With Haley aiming to consolidate non-Trump voter support following DeSantis's exit, the primary could indicate the dynamics of the broader Republican contest.
Demographics of New Hampshire
New Hampshire's demographics, characterized by being whiter, older, and wealthier than the national average, have fueled debates about its early voting status. Critics argue for prioritizing states with greater racial diversity. The primary results will resonate against the backdrop of New Hampshire's distinctive demographics.
Poll Closing Time
Polls in New Hampshire will close at 7 pm ET, and results are expected shortly thereafter. The Guardian will provide live updates and analysis as the primary unfolds.
Stay tuned for comprehensive coverage and insights into the New Hampshire primary's unfolding dynamics.