The recent assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, deputy head of Hamas's political bureau, has triggered concerns about the widening impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Mohammad Atout, a Palestinian resident in Beirut's Burj al-Barajneh refugee camp, expressed shock over the killing, emphasizing its significance for the Palestinian cause. Atout believes that Israel's frustration with its inability to eliminate key Hamas leaders in Gaza, including Yahya Sinwar, led to the attack on Arouri, viewing it as a way for Israel to showcase progress in its war aims.
The unexpected strike in Beirut has raised questions about the potential expansion of the conflict beyond Gaza. While there is a semblance of normalcy in Beirut's southern suburbs, a stronghold of Hezbollah, anxiety persists. Lebanon's outgoing Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, warned of the danger of Lebanon being dragged into a regional war, emphasizing the serious consequences for Lebanon and neighboring countries.
Hezbollah's retaliation, firing rockets into northern Israel, underscores the broader regional implications of Israel's conflict with Hamas. The situation has led to increased hostilities across the Israel-Lebanon border, with daily exchanges, including airstrikes and drone attacks, impacting both sides. In addition, Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Yemen's Houthis, supported by Iran, have escalated attacks, while Islamic State claimed responsibility for deadly blasts in southern Iran.
Lebanon, in particular, faces a precarious situation, challenging the fragile understanding between Hezbollah and Israel since the 2006 Lebanon war. The failure to implement the UN-mandated truce after the 2006 conflict has contributed to the current tensions. Arouri's assassination has pushed the delicate balance to its limits, marking the first Israeli strike on Lebanon's capital since 2006.
Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has referred to established "rules" governing the conflict, emphasizing the limits both sides have historically observed to prevent an all-out war. Nasrallah's warnings suggest that the violation of these rules jeopardizes Lebanon's security, potentially exposing cities, villages, and public figures to Israeli attacks.
Analysts are attempting to decipher Nasrallah's intentions, with some speculating that the conflict is a negotiation over unresolved issues from 2006. Despite the rhetoric, there is a cautious optimism that both Hezbollah and Israel have reasons to avoid a full-scale confrontation. Hezbollah's transformation into an institutional player within Lebanon's political system and Israel's economic and social challenges contribute to a preference for de-escalation.
However, the ongoing conflict and its impact on border communities are creating a momentum for resolving the northern border issue, either through negotiation or military means. The geographical scope of strikes has expanded, and Nasrallah's urgency in addressing the situation underscores the pressure on Hezbollah to respond decisively.
While diplomatic efforts may be underway, the risk of a miscalculation leading to unintended escalation remains a significant concern. The region faces a delicate balance, with the realities of cross-border exchanges overshadowing the rhetoric surrounding potential solutions.