In 2023, the Earth shattered the record for the hottest year, surpassing it by a significant margin, providing compelling evidence of the increasingly warmer and perilous climate compared to the relatively cooler era in which human civilization evolved.
The global temperature in 2023 soared 1.48 degrees Celsius higher than the period preceding the widespread burning of fossil fuels that triggered the climate crisis. This figure is closely approaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius target set by nations in the 2015 Paris Agreement, although sustained temperatures above 1.5 degrees Celsius are necessary to officially breach the target.
Scientists from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) expressed concern that the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is likely to be surpassed within the next 12 months.
The average temperature in 2023 exceeded that of 2016, the previous record-setting year, by 0.17 degrees Celsius, representing a substantial increase in climate terms. Continued record emissions of carbon dioxide, coupled with the return of the natural climate phenomenon El Niño, were identified as the primary contributors to this heightened global warming.
These elevated temperatures led to severe heatwaves, floods, and wildfires, causing widespread damage to lives and livelihoods globally. Analysis revealed that some extreme weather events, such as heatwaves in Europe and the United States, would have been nearly impossible without human-induced global heating.
Data from CCCS indicated that 2023 marked the first year in recorded history when every day was at least 1 degree Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900. Nearly half of the days experienced temperatures 1.5 degrees Celsius higher, and, for the first time, two days exceeded 2 degrees Celsius. The surge in temperatures intensified from June onwards, with September's heat surpassing previous averages to an extent described by one scientist as "gobsmackingly bananas."
Carlo Buontempo, a CCCS director, emphasized the profound consequences for the Paris Agreement and humanity's collective efforts. Urgent decarbonization of the economy, coupled with the use of climate data and knowledge to prepare for the future, was deemed essential to successfully manage climate risk.
Recent scientific assessments have suggested that Earth's life support systems are so compromised that the planet is now "well outside the safe operating space for humanity."
Samantha Burgess, CCCS deputy director, described 2023 as an exceptional year, with climate records breaking like dominoes, likely surpassing temperatures not seen in at least the last 100,000 years.
Professor Bill Collins at the University of Reading expressed shock at 2023 unquestionably breaking the global temperature record, anticipating that further global warming would lead to wetter winters in the UK and increased flooding.
CCCS highlighted several "remarkable" events in 2023, including extensive wildfires in Canada contributing to a 30% rise in global carbon emissions from wildfires and unprecedented ocean temperatures causing marine heatwaves worldwide. Antarctic sea ice also plummeted to record lows, previously showing little obvious impact from global heating.
Prof Brian Hoskins at Imperial College London urged a reconsideration of governmental actions worldwide, noting that 2023 offered a glimpse of climate extremes near the Paris targets.
As experts call for urgent action, Prof Daniela Schmidt at the University of Bristol emphasized the importance of even small changes to mitigate warming increments, questioning whether this record-breaking year would lead to substantial behavioral and policy changes.
In conclusion, Prof John Marsham at the University of Leeds stressed the critical need to rapidly reduce fossil fuel use and achieve net-zero emissions to preserve a livable climate for all. The consensus among hundreds of scientific studies is that the climate crisis is causing more frequent and intense extreme weather events, with 2023 standing out as a year that accelerated global heating in line with predictions but with alarming speed and intensity.