The Trump campaign is optimistic about winning the Iowa state caucuses, with advisers internally considering the former president's lead secure unless another candidate narrows the gap within five or 10 points, sources close to the campaign revealed.
The expected margin of victory has been a key metric for Trump's confidence, and with rivals far from breaching that threshold, the campaign sees a win in Iowa as crucial for gaining momentum towards securing the Republican nomination for the 2024 election.
The campaign acknowledges the potential impact of low turnout, leading Trump to schedule a series of rallies before the January 15 caucuses to energize his supporters. Trump's return to Iowa for multiple campaign rallies signals a renewed focus on the state.
A victory in Iowa is seen as a strategic move to propel Trump through subsequent contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan, setting him up favorably for Super Tuesday on March 5. The campaign anticipates having enough bound delegates by mid-March to secure the nomination.
Backing Trump's projected path are rule changes in key early voting states that his campaign successfully pushed for, altering the delegate allocation process. Changes in Nevada, California, and Michigan are seen as benefiting Trump while disadvantaging competitors like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.
The rule changes have been criticized by Trump's rivals, who view them as manipulation of the nominating contests. Despite accusations of underhanded tactics, Trump appears to be in a stronger position than anticipated, with rivals slipping in the polls, particularly in Iowa.