Ukrainian forces have made strategic adjustments in Avdiivka as the city faces a relentless assault by Russian forces, sparking concerns of an imminent takeover. The announcement came from Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, the Ukrainian commander overseeing forces in the southeast, who assured that new positions and fortified defenses were being prepared to counter the enemy's advances.
The two-year mark of Russia's full-scale invasion looms, putting significant pressure on Ukrainian troops along the frontline. Depleted ranks, exhausted soldiers, and a shortage of artillery shells, exacerbated by a stalled US funding package, have left Ukrainian forces vulnerable. Avdiivka, a city pounded by Russian forces for months, has witnessed recent breakthroughs, with small groups of advance troops penetrating the city.
Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's recently appointed army chief, has dispatched reinforcements to bolster the defense of Avdiivka. However, recent statements suggest that Kyiv may be contemplating a strategic withdrawal from the city, which finds itself surrounded on three sides by Russian forces.
Tarnavskiy emphasized the importance of prioritizing the preservation of Ukrainian soldiers' lives, stating, "We value every piece of Ukrainian land, but the highest value and priority for us is the preservation of the life of a Ukrainian soldier."
Avdiivka's capture would grant Russia complete control over the area surrounding Donetsk, a key Ukrainian city seized by Russian proxy forces in 2014. Symbolically, it would also be a significant gain for Vladimir Putin as he approaches a rubber-stamp election that could secure another six years in office.
Once an industrial hub known for its sprawling coke plant, Avdiivka transformed into a Ukrainian military stronghold after the loss of Donetsk in 2014. However, the recent fighting has left much of the city decimated. Avdiivka's mayor, Vitaliy Barabash, reported a sharp decline in the civilian population, with 923 remaining, down from the prewar population of about 32,000.
As fierce battles persist in and around Avdiivka since October, the city's situation has been described as "hell" by Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade. A shortage of artillery ammunition has further intensified the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, increasing the risk of Avdiivka falling under Russian control.
The capture of Avdiivka would mark Russia's first major territorial gain since taking Bakhmut in May. Military analysts highlight the strategic importance of Avdiivka, emphasizing control over dominant heights and the establishment of logistics corridors for supplying a large front area.
While some draw parallels to the defense of Bakhmut last year, concerns are voiced about the potential political significance attached to Avdiivka, reflecting a reluctance to cede ground regardless of the cost or military reality. President Zelenskiy's recent decision to replace the top army commander with a new approach underscores the gravity of the situation as Ukrainian soldiers brace for further challenges in Avdiivka.