In a significant announcement, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared that North Korea would no longer pursue reconciliation and reunification with South Korea. Instead, Kim emphasized the need to acknowledge the current state of inter-Korean relations, describing them as "a relationship between two hostile countries and two belligerents at war," according to the state-run news agency KCNA.
Kim asserted that dealing with those who consider North Korea as the "main enemy" and aim for its "regime collapse" and "unification by absorption" is a mistake. He highlighted the potential for serious action from North Korea's "nuclear war deterrent" if Washington and Seoul were to engage in military confrontation.
The Korean Peninsula has been divided since the end of the Korean War in 1953, with both sides technically at war but aspiring to reunify. Recent years have seen heightened tensions, particularly after North Korea intensified its nuclear weapons program in defiance of international sanctions.
Kim's declaration signifies a departure from inter-Korean relations, as noted by Hoo Chiew-Ping, a senior fellow at the East Asian International Relations CAUCUS. This shift marks a critical moment where future South Korean administrations extending an olive branch may face strong rejection from North Korea. Pyongyang appears more inclined to strengthen ties with existing allies like China and Russia while excluding the U.S., South Korea, and Japan from its strategic outreach.
Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science, and nonresident scholar at Carnegie China, emphasized that Kim's speech reflects the reality that reunification is not a short or medium-term possibility. The question arises whether non-unification will mean maintaining the status quo or if North Korea feels the need to actively protect itself against possible aggression from South Korea.
Kim's reaffirmed ties with China, as evident in New Year's messages exchanged with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, highlight a commitment to deepen collaboration in various fields. Meanwhile, North Korea announced plans to launch three new military spy satellites in 2024, building on the success of its first satellite launch in November.
The move towards military expansion aligns with North Korea's recent tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles, including the Hwasong-18 in December. Despite some missile test failures, experts note the overall reliability of North Korea's missiles. This testing, coupled with strong rhetoric, may be contributing to increased trilateral cooperation among the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, including real-time sharing of missile tracking data. The international community continues to closely monitor North Korea's actions and their implications for regional stability.